Looking at the Past and the Future

At the end of the decade, we looked back at the predictions of trend forecast book Vision 2010 and compared these with the forecasts for Vision 2020 to signal changes and developments that happened during this decade. Some projections have not changed that much, and some have had a significant impact on our daily lives. Looking a decade backwards also invites for looking a decade ahead towards 2030, what will be the biggest drivers of change and innovations that will impact us the most?

2010-2020-2030

For Vision 2010, we identified four drivers of change; sustainable lifestyles, global thinking, the rebirth of ideals and neuroscience. These four drivers are still valid today but have evolved and grown due to the rise of technology and the urgency of climate change.

Sustainable lifestyles

2010-2020 In the last decade, we went from thinking about consumption, worrying about air pollution, craft beer, chocolate, coffee and gin to a growing urgency to change our lifestyles and consumption patterns.

2030 The focus on the use of sustainable, circular systems and the influence of biotechnology will drive the developments towards 2030. Humans change slowly, we feel reluctant to significant changes, yet we are adaptable, creative creatures that can adjust to new situations. Towards 2030 we will see more inconveniences, more problems due to the changing climate, warming, heat and drought. In some places, it might be too warm to be able to go outside. The world will need at least 50 per cent more food, 45 per cent more energy and 30 per cent more energy than it did in 2012, according to the United Nations. Our consumption patterns will change. We may not be able to afford the products and services that are now cheap. Production will be circular, on-demand, more local and personalised. Infrastructure will define successful sustainable societies.

Global thinking

2010-2020 For 2010 we wrote about the accelerating pace of globalisation, an interconnected borderless world and the effect of global media and capitalism. In the 2020 book, we defined a hold to globalisation due to more nationalistic thinking, Brexit and the Trump administration.

2030 The economic power of the world is shifting to China and India. India will surpass China as the most populous country in 2030, or earlier. We will see a less dominant influence of the west and new international relationships will be formed. The scale will drive economic and technological power. The global middle class will number about 4.9 billion people, 66% of whom will live in Asia. Africa is rising; the young population growth will have increased by 42 per cent in 2030. The new lens on the world will change the global culture and shape future values. The history and the future of the world will be told from a new perspective. Nostalgia will be an essential influence in the coming years. In the speed of technological developments and rapid change, people long for the past as they remember it.

The rebirth of ideals

2010-2020 True Wealth, a driver of change for 2010, was an exploration of the effect of fear and doubt on humans and the desire for stability. We saw the rise of spirituality and the longing for a more simple, less materialistic life. What is life really about? In the 2020 prognosis, the rise of young people was described, their protests and changing values.

2030 Today's younger generation is politically engaged, and their ideals are essential to them. The way they consume, communicate and learn will be a driving influence in 2030 when the majority of Gen Z is in their 20's and 30's. The pressure on this generation is significant, and depression is on the rise. The question: “What is life about?” is a timeless question. Towards 2030 the questions will be focused on our role on this planet, our idea of work and our relationship with technology.

Neuroscience

2010-2020 In the last decade, that started with the introduction of the iPad, we have seen the quick rise of technology. The way we work, socialise, create and share has changed, and not all change has been positive. The Internet has lost some of its joy. Micro-targeting, the end of privacy, deep fakes and the domination of big tech companies influence our societies. The rise of technology is fast and will speed up more as computing power and AI grows.

2030 The jobs that today's young people will hold in 2030 don't exist right now. Work will be AI informed merging with human creativity, monetising output. Autonomous systems, gamification and voice control, will influence our daily lives and our surroundings. The external world affects our brains, and we will see behavioural changes due to data knowledge and surveillance. How will we deal with systems that understand us better than we understand and know ourselves?

Banner image, Ouro collective by Teppei Tanabe